EMA crossover (9/21) backtest on real data
A fast 9/21 EMA crossover, only in the direction of the 200 EMA. Stop 1.5 ATR, target 2R.
1259trades
34%win rate
0.95profit factor
-0.04Raverage trade
-51.3%max drawdown
-44.8%return at 1% risk
EUR/USD · 1-hour candles · 2016-11-09 to 2026-11-09 · Dukascopy data · equity in %, 1% risk per trade
On this data the rules lost money after costs. That is useful to know before you trade them.
The exact rules tested
Buy when the 9 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA and price is above the 200 EMA. Sell when the 9 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA and price is below the 200 EMA. Stop at 1.5x ATR. Target 2R.
How WickCheck reads these rules:
- Long: EMA(9) ↗ EMA(21)
- Long: Close > EMA(200)
- Short: EMA(9) ↘ EMA(21)
- Short: Close < EMA(200)
- Stop: 1.5×ATR(14)
- Target: 2R
Run this backtest yourself
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Same rules on 5 markets
| Market | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Max DD | Return | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1259 | 34% | 0.95 | -0.04R | -51.3% | -44.8% | 2016-11 – 2026-11 |
| GBP/USD | 1292 | 33% | 0.93 | -0.05R | -69.1% | -53.5% | 2016-11 – 2026-11 |
| XAU/USD · Gold | 1199 | 35% | 0.95 | -0.03R | -63.4% | -39.7% | 2016-11 – 2026-11 |
| NQ · Nasdaq 100 | 1069 | 36% | 1.12 | +0.08R | -25.5% | +99.2% | 2016-11 – 2026-11 |
| BTC/USD | 1402 | 38% | 1.03 | +0.02R | -42.1% | +11.1% | 2017-05 – 2026-11 |
Click a market to open that exact test in WickCheck.
Year by year (EUR/USD)
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | 38% | +2.1R |
| 2017 | 121 | 31% | -12.4R |
| 2018 | 115 | 36% | +3.9R |
| 2019 | 129 | 29% | -25.2R |
| 2020 | 112 | 35% | +0.6R |
| 2021 | 132 | 42% | +26.8R |
| 2022 | 132 | 24% | -39.8R |
| 2023 | 118 | 37% | +9.1R |
| 2024 | 139 | 37% | +10.6R |
| 2025 | 120 | 32% | -11.1R |
| 2026 | 117 | 32% | -11.3R |
How this test was run
- Real historical candles from Dukascopy, 1-hour timeframe, 2016-11-09 to 2026-11-09.
- Signals only on closed candles, so a candle never uses information from its own future.
- Spread and commission included, at typical levels for each market.
- 1% of the account risked per trade. When stop and target both fall inside the same candle, 1-minute data decides which came first (where available).
- Results refresh automatically as new candles come in. Last updated 2026-11-09.
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