ICT Silver Bullet backtest on real data
The Silver Bullet is an ICT (Inner Circle Trader) setup traded in one hour of the New York morning, 10:00 to 11:00 New York time. Price first takes liquidity (a previous high or low), then leaves a fair value gap in the opposite direction. The entry is a limit order in that gap, the stop goes beyond the sweep, and the target is the next pool of liquidity.
On this data the rules lost money after costs. That is useful to know before you trade them.
The exact rules tested
Between 10:00 and 11:00 New York time, wait for a liquidity sweep, then wait for a fair value gap. Enter on the FVG. Stop above the sweep. Target liquidity, at least 2R.
How WickCheck reads these rules:
- Direction: Both ways (long + short)
- Session: 10:00–11:00 New York time
- Step 1: Sweep · any untaken high/low (swings, equal highs/lows, previous day, sessions)
- Step 2: FVG
- Step: Each step within 20 bars of the last
- Entry: Limit order at the FVG edge
- Stop: Beyond the sweep wick
- Target: Nearest liquidity at least 2R away
Same rules, same data. Change any word, pick another market or timeframe, and see the result in seconds. No code.
Same rules on 5 markets
| Market | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Max DD | Return | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ · Nasdaq 100 | 28 | 18% | 0.44 | -0.48R | -12.7% | -12.7% | 2025-11 – 2026-11 |
| ES · S&P 500 | 26 | 31% | 0.90 | -0.07R | -7.6% | -2.1% | 2025-11 – 2026-11 |
| EUR/USD | 31 | 29% | 0.85 | -0.12R | -9.8% | -4.0% | 2025-11 – 2026-11 |
| XAU/USD · Gold | 29 | 45% | 2.00 | +0.56R | -4.4% | +17.1% | 2025-11 – 2026-11 |
| GBP/USD | 34 | 29% | 1.16 | +0.13R | -7.6% | +3.6% | 2025-11 – 2026-11 |
Click a market to open that exact test in WickCheck.
Year by year (NQ)
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 0% | -6.7R |
| 2026 | 22 | 23% | -6.6R |
How this test was run
- Real historical candles from Dukascopy, 5-minute timeframe, 2025-11-07 to 2026-11-08.
- Signals only on closed candles, so a candle never uses information from its own future.
- Spread and commission included, at typical levels for each market.
- 1% of the account risked per trade. When stop and target both fall inside the same candle, 1-minute data decides which came first (where available).
- Results refresh automatically as new candles come in. Last updated 2026-11-09.
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